While it’s counterpart in the AFC is likely in store for a rough year as well, the NFC West is by far the worst division in football. The Cardinals are going through a major transition year, the Rams will be rebuilding for a couple of years and nobody quite knows what to make of Pete Carroll’s Seahawks.
That leaves the 49ers, who don’t come without their weaknesses but is definitely the team to beat this year in the West. Now it’s just up to Mike Singletary’s squad to execute.
Here’s how I see things shaking out in the NFC West in 2010. Be sure to check out the link entitled “2010 Question Mark” under each team’s preview, which is a breakdown of one or two potential weaknesses that could derail that squad’s hopes this season.
1. 49ers
What to Like: As you would expect from a Mike Singletary-led team, the 49ers can play a little defense. They finished a very average 15th in total defense last season, but stats don’t tell the whole story. The Niners finished sixth against the run last year by allowing just 97 yards per game, largely due to the play of inside linebacker Patrick Willis, who led the league in tackles. Takeo Spikes continues to be a steady veteran presence and nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin is highly underrated. Staying on that side of the ball, Justin Smith may not put up flashy numbers, but he’s easily one of the best 3-4 ends in the league. Offensively, the Niners have a solid core in Frank Gore, Vernon Davis and second-year player Michael Crabtree. With more consistency at quarterback, this won’t be the dreadful unit it was at times last season. What Not to Like: The offensive line is still a concern, although removing Adam Snyder from the starting right guard spot is a plus. There are high hopes for Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis, but it’s usually not wise to rely on one rookie lineman, nevertheless two rookie linemen. There have also been mixed reviews on Alex Smith this offseason. Some think he’s ready to turn the corner, while others believe he’ll probably be just as inconsistent as ever. OC Jimmy Raye will try to balance the pass more with the run this year, which is a good thing because the team’s strengths is at running back. But Smith still has to step up and make plays when opponents successfully take away the run. Defensively, this is a unit that gave up 229.4 yards per game through the air last season, which means it needs better production out of Nate Clements, Shawntae Spencer and especially, free safety Dashon Goldson (who struggled in coverage last season). Keep Your Eye On:The two rookie O-linemen
Iupati and Davis might be the difference between this team challenging for a division title and it failing to deliver on high expectations. Both players are excellent prospects but they’re going to have to grow up in a hurry because this team expects to compete this season. The Final Word: If the Niners played in a more competitive division I’d be saying something along the lines of, “Improving team, but will probably come up just short of making the postseason.” But since they’ll be able to feast on the trash that is the NFC West, there’s little to no excuse for San Fran to win a division title this year. I’m not completely sold on Smith turning a new leaf, but there’s enough talent on both sides of the ball for this team to produce a 9-7 or 10-6 record. I don’t foresee them advancing in the playoffs unless a couple of players overachieve, but I still think this is a solid football team and you know they’re going to compete every week under Singletary. Plus, don’t forget that the year the Cardinals went to the Super Bowl, they were highly average in the regular season, only to turn it on during the playoffs. I’m not saying…I’m just saying.
Merry preseason, everyone. It’s been a long offseason, but football is finally gearing up again and to celebrate I’m rolling out a new series on TSR entitled “2010 NFL Question Marks,” where I discuss one or two of the biggest concerns that teams have heading into the new season. Granted, some teams have more issues than others, but I’ll primarily be focusing on the biggest problem areas. Today I’ll be discussing the woeful Rams and their concerns at receiver and in the defensive backfield.
When a team earns the right to select at the top of the draft, it’s easy to spot its holes.
And the Rams have a lot of holes.
Outside of running back Steven Jackson and a linebacker corps led by second-year player James Laurinaitis, the Rams have issues at nearly every position. The hope is that young players like Sam Bradford, Rodger Saffold, Jason Smith and Chris Long will step up in due time, but it’s going to be a while before guys like Bradford are ready to make major contributions.
The receiver and defensive backfield are currently the team’s two biggest weaknesses heading into the new year. Wideout was already a concern before Donnie Avery went down to a season ending injury and now that they won’t even have him, the Rams have an even bigger hole at the position.
I’ve been very high on Laurent Robinson since he came into the league as a third round pick of the Falcons in 2007. But despite flashing his potential on occasion, he’s been a dud due to injuries. He caught 13 passes for 167 yards and one touchdown in his first four games last year, then suffered an injury that shelved him for the rest of the season. With Avery out, he has the opportunity to be the No. 1 guy but can he stay healthy for 16 games? He hasn’t yet.
Now that college football is back and we no longer have to spend our time over-analyzing off-field issues, let’s turn our attention to over-analyzing what we’ve seen in one night the play on the field.
The first night of games was pretty vanilla — outside of Utah’s overtime win over Pittsburgh, as Anthony pointed out earlier — but it did give us a little bit of insight into a few teams, and what we could possibly expect to see from them down the road.
Further tests revealed what initial tests showed: Browns rookie RB Montario Hardesty has a torn ACL. Out for year.
Bad news for Hardesty is great news for Jerome Harrison owners, who will likely have a solid RB2 for the price of a 7th-9th round pick. Peyton Hillis has played well and was productive in Denver, so he will probably get some touches to keep Harrison fresh. He could also vulture some goal line work.
Still, Harrison is looking like a great value in the middle rounds and is another reason why it’s a solid strategy to grab a couple of premier WRs in the first three rounds and worry about shoring up the RB position later.
Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that the Chargers have suddenly become willing to trade Vincent Jackson by Saturday, which is a key date for all parties concerned…
Both the Chargers and, presumably, Jackson’s agents would like to have a deal done by 3 p.m. Saturday. After that, Jackson will essentially be suspended for six games. Jackson is suspended the first three games of the season due to his two DUI arrests and cannot report to a team during that suspension. He is also on the Roster Exempt List, which means he has to sit out three games after reporting.
In other words, if the Chargers trade him by Saturday, Jackson will only serve a three-game suspension since he can serve both suspensions concurrently. If they trade him after Sep. 4, he’ll have to serve a six-game suspension.
One wonders why the Chargers waited so long to get the ball rolling on a trade. They have reportedly only let the Seahawks speak to Jackson’s camp about a deal. His trade value will drop after Saturday, so why not trade him before then and get maximum value?
For fantasy owners, this is a fluid situation. Jackson has been going in the 8th, but he’s still around in the later rounds in some drafts. If the Chargers truly have changed their stance, a deal might get done quickly, because it sounds like Jackson’s camp has also lowered its asking price in terms of financial compensation.
He’s a better player than Santonio Holmes, who will miss the first four games due to suspension, but Holmes has had all of training camp to get used to the Jets’ offense and to develop a rapport with Mark Sanchez. At this point, if Jackson joins a new team, he’ll essentially be starting from square one. If he lands with a team like the Vikings, I like his chances of producing once his suspension is up due to the presence of Brett Favre, who will throw the ball up and let Jackson make a play.
Jackson is worth a flier, assuming your team is relatively strong in all areas. If you’re hurting in one area or another, don’t expect Jackson to save you.
Roethlisberger’s suspension is 4 games. He has left the NY area and is en route back to Pittsburgh. Full story ahead on NFL Network
Not shocking – I think most people were expecting Roger Goodell to reduce the suspension in light of Big Ben’s good behavior (for lack of better words).
The games he’ll miss are against the Falcons, Titans, Bucs and Ravens and the news couldn’t come at a better time with Byron Leftwich suffering a knee injury in Pittsburgh’s final preseason game Thursday night. ESPN.com’s Chris Mortensen believes that Leftwich can avoid having surgery and still start in the opener, although in my opinion, Dennis Dixon is a better option anyway given Lefty’s issues with consistency.
We’ll see what happens with Big Ben in four weeks. He’ll have some rust to shake off by that point and it stands to reason that he’ll need a couple of starts to get back into the groove of things.
And no matter how well he performs when he comes back, he better avoid off-field issues or else is career in Pittsburgh will likely end. Considering the Steelers were contemplating dumping him after this last incident, I don’t think I’m reaching with that statement either.
All summer, I’ve been advocating taking Big Ben in the 9th or 10th round as part of a Quarterback By Committee (QBBC) with Eli Manning, Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco, so this is obviously good news for those owners that have followed that advice. By getting Roethlisberger so late, fantasy owners will be getting a Top 6 or 7 fantasy QB at a big discount. I suspect that this news will push Roethisberger’s ADP into the 9th round, so be prepared to use a 7th or 8th rounder on Eli/Ryan/Flacco and a 9th on Big Ben to round out a very potent committee.
Just to have football on my television again was enough for me to sit through South Carolina’s 41-13 dismantling of Southern Miss and not have the goofy grin leave my face the entire game, but opening night in college football was largely a dud.
I guess that’s what you get when No. 2 Ohio State opens up with feeble Marshall, or No. 13 Miami hosts the Florida Institute for Dishwashers or whomever the hell they played last night.
But one game did live up to the hype, despite it being one top 25 team against an unranked.
Pundits knew how good Utah has been at home over the years. The Utes hadn’t lost a game at Rice-Eccles Stadium in close to three seasons, winning 18 in a row while also racking up a 7-0 lifetime record against current Big East teams.
That included PITT.
The Panthers got on the board early with a Dion Lewis 3-yard touchdown run, but Utah fired back with 17 unanswered points in what looked like a potential rout. Then PITT added a Dan Hutchins 37-yard field goal with just under four minutes remaining in the third quarter to make it, 17-10.
In the fourth, PITT added another field goal and Utah responded with a DeVonte Christopher 61-yard touchdown pass from Jordan Wynn. Just when you thought the Panthers would mail it in, they scored 10 unanswered points in the final 7:59 to tie the game.
Of course, that doesn’t even begin to tell what happened. PITT missed a field goal as time expired, but because Utah called a time out in effort to try and ice the kicker (which is turning out to be one of the dumbest strategies in football), Hutchins got another attempt and of course, nailed a 30-yarder to force OT.
In the extra session, Utah intercepted PITT QB Tino Sunseri (which was a great play along the sidelines), setting up Joe Phillips’ 21-yard game-winning field goal. (The final was, 24-21.)
Perfect.
On a night where the blowout was king, PITT and Utah’s thriller stood above the rest. Thank God football is back…
10.03: Mike Williams, WR
This was one of those there’s-no-one-else-I-like-so-I’m-going-to-take-this-guy picks. Williams has really played well in the preseason and as a rookie, he is already the Bucs clear-cut WR1. Josh Freeman isn’t bad, and the Bucs are probably going to have to throw more than they’d like as they try to stay in games this season, so this could all add up to a top 25 year for Williams.
When I made that pick, one of the other ‘insiders’ commented, “I think that’s the earliest that I’ve seen Williams go.”
I wasn’t sure whether or not to take that as an insult, but it struck me as funny when, several days later, Williams went in the 7th round in two of my slow email drafts.
What’s the point? Well, it seems like in the world of WRs, the talent drops off a cliff at a certain point in the 7th or 8th round. Once guys like Jeremy Maclin, Mike Wallace, Malcom Floyd, Pierre Garcon, Johnny Knox and Percy Harvin go, things are starting to get tight at WR. Maybe Donald Driver and T.J. Houshmandzadeh are still worthy of 7th or 8th rounders in PPR leagues, but who’s left after that? Lee Evans? Bernard Berrian? Braylon Edwards? Most fantasy owners are going to pass up these retreads in favor of the upside of Williams, which means he could very well go as early as the 7th round in 12-team leagues.
That’s not to say that there aren’t still some interesting wideouts out there. Guys like Laurent Robinson, Jacoby Jones, Santonio Holmes and Louis Murphy are worthwhile picks, but not in the 7th round. Just don’t expect to land Mike Williams in the 10th round or later anymore — that ship has sailed.
The NFC North will challenge the NFC East this year for being the toughest division in the conference. Three of the four teams are legit playoff contenders, while the Lions only continue to improve as a whole.
Here’s how I see things shaking out in the NFC North in 2010. Be sure to check out the link entitled “2010 Question Mark” under each team’s preview, which is a breakdown of one or two potential weaknesses that could derail that squad’s hopes this season.
1. Packers
What to Like: Given how well he played last year, Aaron Rodgers should be considered a MVP candidate this season. The fact that he was able to throw for 4,434 yards and compile a 103.2 QB rating despite constantly being under pressure is rather amazing. Just think about what he could accomplish this year if the O-line gave him even a fraction of a second more time to throw. Rodgers will lead a passing attack that racked up 261.3 yards per game last season, which was good for seventh in the NFL. He also has an assortment of weapons to throw to, namely receivers Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, as well as rising talent Jermichael Finley. In the backfield, Ryan Grant continues to be underrated and is coming off a 1,253-yard, 11-touchdown season. Defensively, Dom Capers was a miracle worker in his first year, as Green Bay led the NFC in total defense despite switching to the 3-4 (most first-year 3-4 teams struggle). Rookie Clay Matthews turned out to be a phenomenal pass-rusher and Nick Barnett was outstanding in the middle, both against the run and in coverage. Despite his age, Charles Woodson (33) continues to play at an elite level. What Not to Like: The offensive line was a disaster at times last year, save for the play of right guard Josh Sitton. If Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher can make it through an entire season without suffering injuries, this will be a much-improved unit and then Rodgers won’t have to spend most Sunday afternoons running for his life. But both tackles are in their 30s and injuries always seem to be an issue. At left guard, Daryn Colledge struggled, although it’s only fair to point out that he was out of position subbing at tackle. While Tramon Williams is more than capable of handling the starting corner position opposite Woodson, losing Al Harris (knee surgery) was a huge blow to Green Bay’s depth at secondary. The concern is that given Harris’ age (35) and the nature of his injury, he may never play again. The other potential issue on defense is whether or not B.J. Raji can handle playing nose tackle after a lackluster 2009 season as a 3-4 end. All good 3-4 teams have a stout nose tackle to eat up space and if Raji isn’t up for the task, it will certainly have an effect on the linebackers. Keep Your Eye On:Jermichael Finley
Finley put himself on the map last season by catching 55 passes for 676 yards and five touchdowns in just 13 games. He finished the year by hauling in six passes for 159 yards in Green Bay’s loss to the Cardinals in the first round of the playoffs, leading to high expectations this year. If he can stay focused (which is the biggest concern with this youngster), he could put up fantastic numbers in the Packers’ explosive passing attack this season. The Final Word: Expectations are high for the Packers this year, as well they should be. If the offensive line can stay healthy then this is the team to beat in the NFC North. The great thing is that Ted Thompson spent his first round draft pick on tackle/guard Bryan Bulaga, meaning Green Bay now has depth in case injuries do start to mount. Rodgers is the real deal and could lead the Pack deep into the playoffs if his O-line doesn’t get him killed first. Defensively, there are some concerns but Capers will make up for them by being aggressive. If the Packers can win the division and force opponents to come to Green Bay come January, then this will be a legitimate Super Bowl contender this season. The pieces are in place for this team to make a serious run.
